Leaked CIA Memo Contradicts Trump on Iran’s Military Strength

A confidential CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concluded Iran can survive a U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months, according to four people familiar with the document.

The assessment found Iran retains roughly 75 percent of its prewar mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its missile stockpile, contradicting the president’s claim that missiles were "mostly decimated" to about 18–19 percent.

Intelligence officials reported evidence that Iran has reopened underground storage, repaired damaged missiles, and assembled new ones, and one official said Iran may be able to endure longer than the CIA estimated.

The blockade has sharply reduced Iran’s oil exports and strained its economy, and estimates showed exports fell from roughly 2.1 million barrels per day to about 567,000 barrels per day after the blockade intensified.

U.S. officials and administration spokespeople offered competing narratives, with one official warning Iran’s leadership could outlast U.S. political will and a White House spokesperson asserting the military campaign had crushed Iran and the blockade was costing $500 million per day.