Democrats are targeting these seats due to recent special election successes and an environment of decreasing public support for Republicans, especially on economic and healthcare issues. They believe the current political climate could lead to unexpected wins in traditionally Republican areas.

Factors contributing to Democratic confidence include recent election successes and the perception that Republican policies, such as those affecting the economy and Medicaid, are eroding public trust. Additionally, the impact of Elon Musk's workforce reductions has been negative for Republicans in districts with a large military presence.

To retake the majority, Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the House of Representatives.

Republicans dispute the viability of the Democratic targets and argue that vulnerable Democrats are moving to pursue statewide positions, which will make it easier for Republicans to retain seats. They also assert that some of the Democratic targets have moved sharply towards Trump in recent elections.