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US May Pivot Away from Ukraine Peace Efforts Amid Ongoing Conflict

Secretary of State Marco Rubio signals shift in U.S. strategy if Ukraine peace talks stall; confirms a minerals deal with Ukraine is on the horizon.

Overview

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In Paris, Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that the U.S. may abandon efforts for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement if no progress occurs soon. Following productive discussions with European and Ukrainian officials, Rubio remarked on the urgency to determine the feasibility of peace negotiations. Meanwhile, a mineral resources agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine has been signed, establishing a joint investment fund that could bolster Ukraine's economy long-term. Amid ongoing Russian attacks, there's increasing concern about the implications of U.S. non-engagement in the conflict and the Kremlin's strategy moving forward.

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If the U.S. decides to 'move on' from its efforts to secure a peace deal in Ukraine, it could leave a significant power vacuum, allowing Russia to potentially increase its aggression. This could undermine European security, as Ukraine would be less supported by a key global player. Additionally, it might signal a shift in U.S. priorities towards other regions like Asia, particularly in addressing China's rise.

The U.S. and Ukraine have signed a memorandum of intent for a minerals deal, which is expected to pave the way for significant investments and infrastructure modernization. The agreement grants the U.S. access to Ukraine’s vast mineral resources, promoting long-term cooperation between the two countries.

European countries might increase their support for Ukraine to fill the potential gap left by reduced U.S. involvement. For instance, Britain has been leading efforts to bolster the Ukrainian war effort, indicating that Europe could take a more active role in supporting Ukraine's defense and diplomatic efforts.

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