Survey Reveals Trump Would Have Won 2024 Election Regardless of Voter Turnout
A recent survey indicates Trump would have secured victory in the 2024 election even with full voter participation, highlighting key shifts in voter behavior.
Overview
- A post-2024 election survey shows Trump would have won even with full voter turnout, with naturalized citizens making up 9% of the electorate.
- Non-voters favored Trump over Harris, 44% to 40%, according to a Pew and New York Sun survey.
- Approximately 15% of Biden's voters did not participate, while 5% switched to Trump, indicating significant voter shifts.
- 85% of Trump's 2020 supporters voted for him again in 2024, showcasing a strong and diverse coalition backing his campaign.
- The survey underscores the dynamics of voter behavior and preferences that shaped the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
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Analysis
Center-leaning sources frame the narrative around the 2024 election results with a focus on voter behavior and hypothetical outcomes. They emphasize statistical findings, suggesting a potential Trump victory even with higher voter turnout. Implicitly, there's a bias towards interpreting data that may challenge prevailing narratives about voter support for Biden.
"Trump's coalition grew – it got more ethnically diverse and younger."
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FAQ
The survey indicated that non-voters favored Trump over Harris by 44% to 40%, suggesting that among those who did not vote, there was a slight preference for Trump, which reflects key shifts in voter behavior and preferences in the 2024 election.
Approximately 15% of Biden's 2020 voters did not participate in the 2024 election, and about 5% switched their vote to Trump, indicating a significant shift that contributed to Trump's victory according to the survey.
Naturalized citizens made up 9% of the electorate in the 2024 election, highlighting their significance as a demographic group influencing the election outcome.
About 85% of Trump's 2020 supporters voted for him again in 2024, demonstrating a strong and diverse coalition backing his campaign and contributing to his projected victory.
The survey was a postelection study conducted by Pew Research Center, involving validated voters who reported voting in a post-election survey and whose votes were confirmed by official state records, providing a reliable analysis of voter turnout and preferences.
History
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