Survey Reveals Trump Would Have Won 2024 Election Regardless of Voter Turnout
A recent survey indicates Trump would have secured victory in the 2024 election even with full voter participation, highlighting key shifts in voter behavior.
Overview
- A post-2024 election survey shows Trump would have won even with full voter turnout, with naturalized citizens making up 9% of the electorate.
- Non-voters favored Trump over Harris, 44% to 40%, according to a Pew and New York Sun survey.
- Approximately 15% of Biden's voters did not participate, while 5% switched to Trump, indicating significant voter shifts.
- 85% of Trump's 2020 supporters voted for him again in 2024, showcasing a strong and diverse coalition backing his campaign.
- The survey underscores the dynamics of voter behavior and preferences that shaped the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Content generated by AI—learn more or report issue.
Get both sides in 5 minutes with our daily newsletter.
Analysis
Center-leaning sources frame the narrative around the 2024 election results with a focus on voter behavior and hypothetical outcomes. They emphasize statistical findings, suggesting a potential Trump victory even with higher voter turnout. Implicitly, there's a bias towards interpreting data that may challenge prevailing narratives about voter support for Biden.
Roughly 64% of the eligible-voting population turned out in 2024, the second highest since 1904.
Articles (3)
Center (1)
"…Trump's coalition grew – it got more ethnically diverse and younger."
NPR·5d·FAQ
The survey indicated that non-voters favored Trump over Harris by 44% to 40%, suggesting that among those who did not vote, there was a slight preference for Trump, which reflects key shifts in voter behavior and preferences in the 2024 election.
Approximately 15% of Biden's 2020 voters did not participate in the 2024 election, and about 5% switched their vote to Trump, indicating a significant shift that contributed to Trump's victory according to the survey.
Naturalized citizens made up 9% of the electorate in the 2024 election, highlighting their significance as a demographic group influencing the election outcome.
About 85% of Trump's 2020 supporters voted for him again in 2024, demonstrating a strong and diverse coalition backing his campaign and contributing to his projected victory.
The survey was a postelection study conducted by Pew Research Center, involving validated voters who reported voting in a post-election survey and whose votes were confirmed by official state records, providing a reliable analysis of voter turnout and preferences.
History
- This story does not have any previous versions.