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Tennessee Special Election: Republican Van Epps Holds Narrow Lead Over Democrat Behn in Tight Race

Republican Matt Van Epps leads Democrat Aftyn Behn by two points in Tennessee's 7th District special election, a surprisingly tight race for the GOP.

Overview

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  • Republican Matt Van Epps currently holds a narrow two-point lead over Democratic challenger Aftyn Behn in Tennessee's 7th congressional district special election.
  • The special election fills the vacant seat of former Republican Rep. Mark Green, who abruptly resigned in July following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
  • Despite the district's strong Republican lean, with Donald Trump winning by 22 points in 2024, the race is unexpectedly competitive, causing concern for the GOP.
  • Voter demographics show Aftyn Behn with strong support from those under 40, while Matt Van Epps garners significant backing from voters over 70.
  • Both parties have heavily invested in the district, as key voter concerns like the economy, affordability, healthcare, and threats to democracy influence this tight contest.
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Analysis

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Center-leaning sources frame this special election as a significant challenge for Republicans in a traditionally red district. They emphasize the unexpected competitiveness, highlight President Trump's declining approval among independents as a key factor, and present candidate backgrounds and platforms in ways that subtly underscore the shifting political landscape and potential GOP vulnerability.

"The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home."

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The 7th District race is unexpectedly competitive despite its strong Republican lean because the Democratic candidate, Aftyn Behn, has strong support from younger voters under 40, while the Republican candidate, Matt Van Epps, is favored among voters over 70. Key voter concerns such as the economy, affordability, healthcare, and threats to democracy are influencing this tight contest.

The main candidates are Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn. In the Republican primary, Van Epps won with 51.56% of the vote. In the Democratic primary, Behn won with 27.89% of the vote among several contenders.

The seat became vacant when Republican Rep. Mark Green abruptly resigned in July after the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Aftyn Behn carried Williamson County by a slim margin and performed well in more populous Montgomery and Davidson counties, helping to secure her victory in the Democratic primary.

Voter demographics show Aftyn Behn receiving strong support from voters under 40, while Matt Van Epps is favored by voters over 70, contributing to the close race despite the district's usual Republican dominance.

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