Cook Report Moves Texas, Iowa Toss-Ups

The election forecaster now rates GOP-held Senate races in Texas and Iowa as toss-ups.

•Leans Left

Election Forecaster Moves Texas and Iowa Senate Races to Toss Ups

Blue wave incoming: Two key Senate races now deemed toss-ups

Cook Political Report Finds Democrats Have ‘Multiple Paths’ to Take the Senate

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The reporting

A neutral summary of the key facts most outlets agree on, drawn from reporting across the political spectrum.

The Cook Political Report on Aug. 20 moved the U.S. Senate races in Texas and Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss Up, its most competitive rating. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton; in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek faces Republican Ashley Hinson, giving Democrats additional paths to a Senate majority in two states Trump carried in 2024. Cook also shifted the Texas and Iowa governor races toward Democrats, while Talarico has spent more than $25 million on TV ads and Paxton has not aired ads.

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The arguments that emerged from this coverage — built only from the analysis and opinion pieces, never from straight reporting. Each dot is one article, placed by its outlet's bias — left to right. How to read our graphics →

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GOP Senate TroubleLeans Left

Republicans are losing ground in Senate races that should be safe or favorable for them. Democratic strength, anti-Trump backlash, and ratings shifts in red-state contests point to a political environment that could put long-held Republican seats at risk.

Paxton VulnerableLeans Left

James Talarico appears to be in a stronger position than Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, even if the polling is not fully settled. Paxton is struggling badly enough that he may need major outside help from figures like Donald Trump and Elon Musk to remain competitive.