Cook Report Moves Texas, Iowa Toss-Ups
The election forecaster now rates GOP-held Senate races in Texas and Iowa as toss-ups.
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Updated Aug 20, 6:04pm ETBoth sides, every morning
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The reporting
The Cook Political Report on Aug. 20 moved the U.S. Senate races in Texas and Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss Up, its most competitive rating. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton; in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek faces Republican Ashley Hinson, giving Democrats additional paths to a Senate majority in two states Trump carried in 2024. Cook also shifted the Texas and Iowa governor races toward Democrats, while Talarico has spent more than $25 million on TV ads and Paxton has not aired ads.
Analysis & opinion
GOP Senate TroubleMostly Left
Republicans are losing ground in Senate races that should be safe or favorable for them. Democratic strength, anti-Trump backlash, and ratings shifts in red-state contests point to a political environment that could put long-held Republican seats at risk.
Paxton VulnerableMostly Left
James Talarico appears to be in a stronger position than Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, even if the polling is not fully settled. Paxton is struggling badly enough that he may need major outside help from figures like Donald Trump and Elon Musk to remain competitive.
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