Asteroid 2024 YR4's Collision Odds Rise, Sparking Public Concern
NASA estimates a 3.1% chance of the asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032, marking the highest risk level recorded for a large asteroid.
The narrow difference is due to the two agencies’ use of different tools for determining the asteroid’s orbit and modeling its potential impact.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has the ‘highest impact probability’ ever recorded, but that’s likely to change
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Space agencies upped the chance once again that a “city-killing” asteroid strikes Earth in 2032.
NASA again increases chances of 'city-killing' asteroid striking Earth
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The simple answer is that pinning down an object’s orbit gets easier the longer you look at it, and astronomers haven’t yet had enough time and opportunity to do that for 2024 YR4.
‘City Killer’ Asteroid’s Earth Impact Risk Rises to Highest Ever Recorded
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The asteroid is rated a 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool used for categorizing potential impacts.
Asteroid's Chances of Smacking Earth Increase. Here's What to Know
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The size of the uncertainty region has shrunk since then, because more is known about it, so Earth, remaining the same size, occupies a greater portion of the region than it did originally.
Odds of asteroid YR4 2024 hitting Earth in 2032 go up again, NASA says
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The odds have fluctuated in both directions over the last few weeks, but overall, they have risen; that’s because the amount of uncertainty astronomers have as to its true orbit has shrunk, but Earth has yet to completely fall out of that zone of uncertainty.
The odds of a city-killer asteroid impact in 2032 keep rising. Should we be worried?
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Summary
The asteroid 2024 YR4 has seen its impact probability with Earth increase to 3.1%. While the odds are still low, this level of risk is unprecedented for near-Earth objects, prompting space agencies to closely monitor its trajectory. The asteroid could cause localized destruction if it hits, but ongoing observations may revise its risk downward as more data becomes available. Currently, NASA is using multiple telescopes and the James Webb Space Telescope for further analysis, emphasizing that 96.9% odds still favor the asteroid missing Earth altogether.
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