NOAA, NWS Warn El Niño Is Likely to Return and Could Be Strong
Forecasters say El Niño is likely to form soon with high odds of persisting into winter and a 2-in-3 chance of reaching strong or very strong intensity in late 2026.
Scientific AmericanThere’s an 82 percent chance El Niño will ‘emerge soon,’ NWS says
Washington TimesNOAA warns of powerful El Nino as hurricane season approaches
ARS TechnicaForecasters predict wildfires, floods, severe heatwaves from incoming El Niño
CNNEl Niño is coming faster than expected and chances are rising that it will be historically strong | CNN
USA TODAYNew El Niño forecast warns of a powerful shift amid hurricane season
Overview
The National Weather Service said there is an 82 percent chance El Niño will emerge between May and July.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a May 14 forecast saying El Niño is expected to arrive within weeks and could intensify into one of the most powerful climate events on record.
Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA's ENSO team lead, said there is a 2-in-3 chance of a 'strong' or 'very strong' El Niño during November 2026 to January 2027.
Forecasters said there is roughly a 96 percent chance El Niño will be occurring in December through February 2027.
Researchers including Fredi Otto and World Weather Attribution warned a moderate or strong El Niño atop a warmer climate raises the risk of unprecedented heatwaves, floods, wildfires, and forecasters said the June-November hurricane season could be affected.
Analysis
Center-leaning sources frame the story with urgency by foregrounding scientific warnings and using evocative phrases such as 'Earth’s long-running fever' and 'serious risk of unprecedented weather extremes.' They prioritize academic researchers and World Weather Attribution, highlight human-caused warming, and lead with projected impacts (wildfires, floods, heatwaves) to stress imminent risk.