Gulf System Could Become Hurricane

Forecasters are tracking Invest 92L, a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that is becoming better organized. They give it about a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next day or two. The Atlantic has not had a hurricane this season, an unusually quiet stretch past the usual September peak. Strong El Niño conditions have increased wind shear, which can tear storms apart, while very warm Gulf water could help a system strengthen. Heavy rain could hit the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast even without a named storm. Saturated ground could raise flood risk. If it reaches tropical-storm strength, it will be named Isaias. Forecasters expect a northward drift late this week, with the track and strength still uncertain.