Asteroid 2024 YR4's Collision Odds Rise, Sparking Public Concern
NASA estimates a 3.1% chance of the asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032, marking the highest risk level recorded for a large asteroid.
NASA again increases chances of 'city-killing' asteroid striking Earth
Straight Arrow News
‘City Killer’ Asteroid’s Earth Impact Risk Rises to Highest Ever Recorded
Scientific American
Overview
The asteroid 2024 YR4 has seen its impact probability with Earth increase to 3.1%. While the odds are still low, this level of risk is unprecedented for near-Earth objects, prompting space agencies to closely monitor its trajectory. The asteroid could cause localized destruction if it hits, but ongoing observations may revise its risk downward as more data becomes available. Currently, NASA is using multiple telescopes and the James Webb Space Telescope for further analysis, emphasizing that 96.9% odds still favor the asteroid missing Earth altogether.
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USA TODAY·5M·FAQ
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 to 90 meters in size, though some reports suggest it could be around 54 meters in diameter. If it hits Earth, it could release about 8 megatons of energy, potentially causing localized destruction comparable to 500 times the energy of the Hiroshima bomb.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a higher impact probability than any other asteroid, including Apophis, which briefly had a 2.7% chance of impact. YR4's risk level is unprecedented for its size category.
Space agencies like NASA and the European Space Agency are intensifying their monitoring efforts using advanced telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope. They are also developing strategies for potential deflection, emphasizing international cooperation and technological advancements.
The potential impact zones for asteroid 2024 YR4 include regions spanning the eastern Pacific, northern South America, and extending across the Atlantic Ocean to areas in Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
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