• The recent offensive by anti-government rebels in northern Syria, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), represents a notable escalation in conflict, with the rebels claiming control over key areas including portions of Aleppo, signalling a crucial shift in the war dynamics since the first major offensive in over three years. Reports indicate that heavy civilian casualties, including women and children, have occurred as Iranian and Russian forces retaliate against the rebel assaults, raising humanitarian concerns and pointing to a worsening of the already dire situation in the region.
• This offensive coincides with a precarious regional balance, especially after Hezbollah's ceasefire with Israel, indicating that extremist factions are seizing the moment to intensify their campaigns against the Assad regime, suggesting broader implications for regional stability as multiple militant groups may seek to capitalize on the Syrian government's weakened position.
• Despite supporting military forces from Russia and Iran, the Assad regime appears increasingly struggling to maintain control amid the rebels' organized assaults. The continued territorial gains made by the rebels, especially in Aleppo where combat has reignited, imply a potential transformation of the conflict trajectory, challenging the long-held dominance of Assad's forces.

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