President Trump's Coalition Frays

New polls show cracks in President Trump's coalition as Democrats gain trust on the economy.

Mostly Left

12 left5 center3 right

Updated Oct 21, 3:55pm ET

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What happened

A New York Times/Siena poll found that 36% of likely voters approved of President Donald Trump’s performance, while 59% disapproved. Likely voters favored Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by 11 points in their districts. The survey landed less than two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections, with Republicans trying to keep control of Congress. Discontent reached beyond Trump’s opponents, including some men, younger voters and Hispanic voters who helped elect him in 2024. Voters focused on economic conditions, with about three-quarters rating the economy fair or poor. Democrats still faced difficult Senate contests in Republican-leaning states.

How each side covered it

From the left

Left-leaning outlets framed Trump’s slide as a broad Republican danger, with more stress on Democratic opportunity than internal GOP repair. The Guardian said the numbers created a gloomy landscape for Trump’s party and opened paths in tougher territory. The New York Times tied the decline to costs, the economy and the Iran war. The Daily Beast emphasized cracks inside Trump’s winning coalition.

From the right

Right-leaning outlets treated the polling as a warning that Trump’s base was not firm enough for the midterm fight. Patriot Post focused on weakness among core supporters, arguing Trump should be stronger inside his own party. The Center Square cited Scott Lincicome blaming tariffs, deportations, the Iran war, deficits and Fed pressure for inflation pain.

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